Jim Clary introduced Dr. James Koch with a variation of an old but timely quip. “Why did God invent economists? To make weathermen feel better about themselves.” Given the recent weather predictions, economists may be forgiven for getting the last laugh.

 

Dr. Koch now splits his time between Old Dominion University and the University of Montana. He started with a slide on real income in Hampton Roads versus the United States as a whole. Our growth rate is a mere 1.1% versus 2.3% for the U.S. The decline is generally attributed to the decline in defense spending with all the attendant implications. Similarly, we still haven’t recovered the jobs that were lost in the recession; there has been a net loss of 21,000 civilian jobs.

 

Tourism has also suffered --  especially in Williamsburg where there has been a substantial decrease. Younger folk don’t seem to be attracted to the historical venues. Dr. Koch does not believe this is a great time to be building hotels. Of course, new ones will probably do well. But the older stock could languish. This is also true of the real estate market. There are lots of distressed properties holding down prices even though there seems to be a “modest” recovery in the median housing price.

 

The port is a bright spot for the economy; it has totally recovered since the recession. However, due to the strong dollar, 10 percent of the outgoing containers are empty! Our port has an advantage for the short term due to its depth; but dredging the channel must remain a high priority. A new challenge with the super-sized ships coming down the pike: they have so many containers that they take more than 24 hours to unload. Changing shifts must be carefully implemented to deal with this workload.

 

In Dr. Koch’s opinion, there is no evidence to support added revenue in the case of casinos. “The net effect is close to zero!” It seems that studies show that revenue is simply rerouted.

 

On the subject of stock markets: “stocks are over-priced.” We might be facing a decade like the '70s when there was virtually no movement among stocks. As for interest rates, Dr. Koch is not a fan of low rates as it tends to distort markets. He believes that China is a huge wildcard in the world economy; as far as their growth, their currency, their banks, “they lie.” So it’s hard to divine what is actually going on. The only growth sectors that are sure are health and technology.

 

A question was raised about the lack of inflation. Dr. Koch’s answer was that the velocity of money has changed: there is a slower turnover.

 

Another question concerned the price of oil. Dr. Koch sees further declines along with declines in other commodities.

 

There were many additional insights and factoids too numerous to capture. It was a tightly packed presentation appreciated by all the Rotarians.

 

 

President Sally turned to Chip Vogan to lead us in a warm-up “If you’re happy and you know it, clap your hands.” After the Pledge, Sigur Whitaker offered a brief invocation.

 

 

Jean Owens is in charge of Visitation for the month. Dyteya Lewis introduced our guests. Richard Gillcrese was the guest of Dr. Steve Jones; John Lynn brought Bob Smartschan; and Bob Ash brought Asia Cuffo. Ben Huger was a visiting Rotarian. 

 

 

President Sally presented Paul Harris Fellow pins to Collins Gooch, Jerry Friedman, Bernie Cohen, Skip Burton and Barbara Lipskis.

 

Rotary Grants application deadline is Jan. 29. 

 

Administrative reminders: dues are due NOW. All months have 3 lunch meetings and numerous volunteer or community engagement activities. Thank you to those who have organized these activities!

 

Suds ‘n Buds on May 13^th—mark your calendars. We are looking for food vendors. Lisa Chandler emailed all the forms and info to us. Open the attachments so you know what’s going on!

 

 

Friday, Feb. 5—Corks for the Cure—fundraiser for the VaB Rotary Club 6 pm at Princess Ann Country Club $50 a ticket.

 

 

Bill Eisenbeiss paid for the marketing opportunity for Evenings at St. Patrick. This annual course of evening programs provides a host of entertaining and educational opportunities during the long winter months. Check it out!

 

Barbara Lipskis paid $14 for 14 days of skiing. And “The Hampton Years” opens this week at the Virginia Stage Company. Shep Miller paid for myriad benefits: his son’s engagement, being at a football game in Arizona, and, last but not least, for the delicious crab soup at lunch. Kudos to our Chef.

 

Pam Tubbs celebrated her daughter-in-law’s promotion to the director at the Hunter House. Bob Ash celebrated his 47^th wedding anniversary. Ned Alderman announced that on the 31^st dogs will be invited to attend church (Epworth United Methodist Church only). And many more good things were reported.

 

After the program, President Sally presented Dr. James Koch with the book “The Mixed Up Story” which is going to Granby Elementary School. There were three 100% tables. Somebody won the raffle but not the big pot. (Your scribe was so surprised to be sitting at a 100% table that everything else was lost to posterity.)